83rd Academy Awards Preview

Damn, I haven't posted anything in a long-ass time. So, what better time for someone like me, who has an endless supply of opinions when it comes to movies and sees just about everything to return to blogging than right before Oscars? I'll be talking about the important categories... sorry, Costume Design, maybe next year... and doing so in two ways: who I think should win, based on my opinion, and who I think will win, based on what usually happens at the Oscars. Here we go.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Yeah, I know, but I'm a writer, so I think these first two count!
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Should Win: Sorkin's screenplay was absolutely brilliant, like most of his writing, and is definitely the best of the bunch.

Will Win: I think they'll go with Sorkin here. Not only have they never nominated any of his screenplays before, but he's cleaned up at all the other awards shows in this category, so I think its pretty much a lock.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Should Win: Nolan, hands down. As good as the other flicks here are, everything about Inception was brilliant, and since they absolutely stiffed him in the director category...

Will Win
: Not Nolan, since there seems to be one hell of a grudge against him somewhere. This is a tough one to call, but I think it'll go to The King's Speech.

Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

Should Win: Toy Story 3. Shit made me cry.

Will Win:
Toy Story 3. I don't think there's really much doubt here.

And now that the preliminaries are out of the way...

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

Should Win: Tough call for me because I enjoyed all of these performances, and in a lot of ways they were the best things about their respective movies (or, in Ruffalo's case, the only good thing about the movie...), but I have to give it to Bale.

Will Win: I think the only threat to Bale is Rush, but I think it is a very slim threat, and Bale walks out with this one.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Should Win: I'm turn between the two amazing performances in The Fighter on this one, if I'm being honest, but I'm leaning towards Adams as the stronger performance of the two.

Will Win: Honestly, I'm kind of thinking Adams and Leo might cancel each other out, leaving this award to go to either Steinfeld or Bonham Carter, in which case the latter probably wins.

Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”

Should Win: Firth. He was fantastic, sympathetic, and uplifting.

Will Win: Probably Firth, but remember, the Academy loves the Dude, Franco is hosting, and The Social Network is a powerhouse. This is probably the most interesting award this year.

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Should Win: Admittedly, I'm biased, but Portman's performance was easily the best out of this group, with, in my opinion, Jennifer Lawrence as a close second.

Will Win: Even with my bias, there's no way this award should go to anyone other than Portman.

“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Should Win: Christopher Nolan. What's that you say, he isn't nominated? Yeah, I think that's as absolutely ridiculous as you do. Can't argue with the others, but the direction had absolutely nothing to do with The Fighter's success. Mini-rant aside, I think I'd have to take Aronofsky as my personal pick here.

Will Win: Fincher. Like I said, The Social Network is a powerhouse, and a rare film where absolutely everything in it works, from the music to the cast to the script.

Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ce├ín Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

Should Win: The Social Network. Like I said above, its pretty much a perfect film...

Will Win: ...and I'm totally expecting the Academy to recognize that. I'd be beyond surprised if The Social Network doesn't win the grand prize here.

So there you have it, my thoughts. I'd love to hear what you guys think. Agree? Disagree? Let me know!