Stormtrooper Terry

Stormtrooper Terry

Sunday, February 22, 2015

2015 Oscars, Part 2: The Predictions


Are we all ready for some Oscars? I know I am. With Neil Patrick Harris hosting, we can rest pretty well assured that the show itself is going to be legen... wait for it... wait for it... keep waiting... I hope you aren't lactose intolerant because the last part of this word is... dary. It's time for my annual attempt to compare what I want to happen with what I consider the ten big awards with what I think will happen. But first, let's look at how I rated the eight Best Picture nominees.

8. Boyhood
7. The Grand Budapest Hotel
6. Selma
5. The Imitation Game
4. Whiplash
3. The Theory of Everything
2. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
1. American Sniper

Best Animated Feature
Nominated: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Want to win: Big Hero 6
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Big Hero 6 was a breath of fresh air, a superhero movie that, thanks to the animated nature of it, could fully embrace the superhero concept without any modicum of reality. The animation was flawless, the cast was great, and the story was wonderful. Plus, it had a breakout character. But, I think we all know the Academy hates superheroes, and they'll' probably follow in the Golden Globes footsteps and go with the safer Dragon sequel.

Best Original Song
Nominated: Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie), Glory (Selma), Grateful (Beyond the Lights), I'm Not Gonna Miss You (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me), Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Want to win: Everything is Awesome
Will win: Glory
Everything is Awesome deserves it because it's catchy as hell and it would make up for the ridiculous snub of the Lego Movie not getting a Best Animated Feature nod, but Selma isn't going to win anything else and after the controversy over its lack of nominations, I think it'll get the consolation prize here. And it is a good song, after all.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominated: American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
Want to win: Whiplash
Will win: Whiplash
I'm hoping I get this one right, because the Whiplash screenplay was vibrant and witty as hell.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominated: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler 
Want to win: Birdman
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Birdman screenplay was brilliant, but the Academy loves Wes Anderson, and as much as I disliked the movie itself, the screenplay was pretty good.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominated: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Want to win: J.K. Simmons
Will win: J.K. Simmons
Tough one here. I think the only real competition here is between Simmons and Norton, but Norton disappears completely for the second half of Birdman, whereas Simmons is almost as much the star of his movie as Miles Teller, so I think he gets the edge.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominated: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Want to win: Emma Stone
Will win: Patricia Arquette
I think Stone was the best of the bunch, especially for her little monologue where she rips her onscreen father apart, but I think the Academy will go with Arquette, who was pretty much the emotional anchor of the otherwise awful Boyhood.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominated: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Want to win: Bradley Cooper
Will win: Michael Keaton
This is I think easily the toughest category of the night, as these were all monster performances. I think Bradley Cooper put in the performance of a lifetime, but I think there's a good chance Michael Keaton will be rewarded for a lifetime of performances. We'll see.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominated: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Want to win: Julianne Moore
Will win: Julianne Moore
I think this is a walk-off for Moore. the other ladies were all good, but she was mesmerizing and heart-breaking. It was a powerful performance that had me stifling tears for a lot of it, and I think there's no way it doesn't get the recognition it deserves.

Best Directing
Nominated: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Want to win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Will win: Richard Linklater
I think Birdman was an infinitely better movie, but Linklater will probably get recognized for the achievement and unique filming process of Boyhood. I'd be happy to get this one wrong, but I guess we'll see. 

Best Picture
Nominated: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
Want to win: American Sniper
Will win: Birdman
I'm honestly unsure of this one, as I think American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, and Birdman all have decent shots, but I have to pick one and my gut says Birdman, just because it seems to be on a roll.

There's still four hours or so til the show, so there's still time for all you reading this out there to chime in with your predictions, and remember to check back in tomorrow to see how we did!
 

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